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Reverend James Squire

The False Consensus Effect


 


“The False Consensus Effect occurs when people overestimate how much others share their opinions and beliefs. In romantic relationships, this can lead to misunderstandings and frustrations when partners assume their spouse shares their perspective, only to discover that they do not.” (Psychology Today March 29, 2023.)

 

I tend to see social/political issues through the lens of a therapist. Namely, the same conditions that cause things to happen at an interpersonal level can help us understand what is occurring on the social/political level.

 

When I was counseling a couple who were having great difficulty with what was wrong in their relationship, the difficulty was often caused by the “romantic fallacy” or “false consensus effect.”  It often is the reason that one member of a couple will tell the other that he/she doesn’t understand what is important to them. The other member of the couple will state, “What do you think? I am a mind reader.”

 

The False Consensus Effect occurs when we feel passionately about something. We immediately think that the other person in the relationship should automatically know what that important issue is; they should read our minds.

 

It is the underlying psychological dynamic that was responsible for the election of Trump.

 

Recall that Biden’s mantra was that the election of Trump will change the soul of America and end our democracy. Biden, Trump’s former cabinet members, and most of the Democratic Party had the strongest feelings possible about that perspective. It was why Biden ran for the Office of the President after the white power march in Charlottesville. I shared the same passion as Biden and others, fearing that it was a matter of the life or death of our democracy.

 

This fervent belief led us to assume that because we felt so strongly about this issue, then all other people of our nation would believe this threat in the same way that we did. The issue of preserving our democracy became our top priority!

 

The fact of the matter is that the working class didn’t share that view. But we felt that the issue of the threat to democracy should be obvious, that our passion should have been shared by all people, and they should know and experience that perspective with the same passion as we did. They didn’t. The post-election focus groups’ analysis was Democracy is very important, but not as important as the kitchen table issues.  It is like the couple in a relationship misunderstanding what the other partner really feels is important. Jane may think that some romance in the relationship is the most important thing where John may think that working long hours is so that he can provide for his family is most important.

 

I had a couple in premarital counseling and things were moving along through the issues, but one issue didn’t come up. What are your feelings about having children? The woman indicated that she wanted a large family. The man looked shocked and said that he wanted one child, if that. (He came from a large family and didn’t like the chaos that sometimes goes along with that.) The woman looked stunned. “But I thought you knew that I wanted a large family.”

 

“BUT I THOUGHT YOU KNEW” ARE THE WATCHWORDS FOR FALSE CONSENSUS EFFECT.

With the couple an awkward moment ensued where they just stared at one another. I suggested that they go home and talk the issue through until they both were on the same page and come back to see me. I didn’t think that a counseling session for them to discuss this very personal matter was the right venue. They deserved their privacy to discuss it.  They never came back as they couldn’t conclude on the same approach to the issue of children.

 

In post-election analysis it seems there were two important issues in Trump’s success. People said that democracy was important but not as important as food on the table. Second, Trump got the young male vote because men wanted a strong man as they thought that they didn’t have a place in our culture. Rogan’s podcast made a difference. The focus groups also indicated that Trump got the votes of the mothers of these young men as they thought Trump would be the CHANGE that they wanted for their sons.

 

Unfortunately, Trump’s brand of being masculine is not one that I and others would subscribe to. When the interviewers dug deeper with the mothers of young sons (25 -35), the mothers indicated that their sons’ lives were more important than democracy.

 

Democracy for many was a theory. Kitchen table issues can be seen every day as families live paycheck to paycheck. The working class was not patient enough for Biden’s programs to reach their tables. Trump made it seem that change would come sooner than later with him.

 

There is a story/ joke told by Hiam Ginott, a child psychologist, where he describes the difference between theory and action. A very kind teacher saw her student putting his feet in a newly poured sidewalk. People were shocked as she pulled the boy from the concrete in a violent way and threw him to the ground. When asked why she did this, she responded, “I loved him in theory, but not in the concrete.”

 

The Democrats and I missed the most basic issue just as the couple missed the most basic issue of a marriage. Do you want to have children? How many? I should have known better!

 

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